Changes in Meta ad prices show dollars moving there ahead of TikTok ban

As advertisers prepare for a United States without TikTok., Meta’s cost per thousand impressions (CPM) shows signs of both increased competition and expanded ad inventory, according to three sources.

The Supreme Court confirmed TikTok ban todaya move that could reshape the global social media landscape. Its withdrawal from the US market puts billions of advertising dollars at stake, and rising CPMs on Meta’s Reels already signal a shift in demand.

Data from Varosa benchmarking company that tracks digital ad spending, shows that Meta Reels CPMs on Facebook and Instagram increased throughout the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, YouTube remained flat and TikTok saw a decline.

“Increased demand for short-form videos on Reels has led to increased CPMs,” said Jason Krebs, general manager of Varos. “Lower demand relative to inventory on TikTok led to a decrease in CPM.”

Performance agency Tinuiti reported a 9% year-over-year decline in Meta CPMs, with December remaining flat year-over-year.

“The decline in CPMs year-over-year and month-over-month in January 2025 indicates that auction competition is weaker,” said Jack Johnston, senior director of social innovation at Tinuiti. “This could mean that Meta opened up more ad inventory and that using Meta’s conversion signals led to more effective impressions, making a strong case for advertisers to scale on Meta.”

Meanwhile, Calla Murphy, vice president of digital strategy at Belardi Wong, noted that Meta’s CPMs were up 16% month-to-date year-to-date, with a 10% increase in the fourth quarter over a year.

“This indicates increased competition,” Wong said.

Even if TikTok disappears from the United States, advertisers expect demand for short-form videos to remain strong.

“TikTok may be banned, but demand for TikTok-style content and mobile videos will remain strong,” said Hillary Kupferberg, vice president of performance marketing at Exverus Media. “The audience will be split if the ban is upheld, but the audience and potential aren’t going anywhere.”

Two agency executives, speaking on condition of anonymity, predict Meta will update its Shops experience this year.

“With an established presence in social commerce already in place, we anticipate that Instagram Shop will more closely reflect the TikTok store experience in 2025, regardless of what happens with the ban,” said a head of the company. ‘agency.

As brands and agencies adapt, the battle for TikTok ad dollars is only just beginning: Meta may seem like the emerging winner at the moment, but competitors are likely to make their own play in the months to come. come.