Could TikTok be banned… today?

Wwhat we know now:

TikTok will be banned this Sunday, January 19 if it does not demonstrate its desire to disengage from ByteDance, its Chinese-owned parent company… Unless the Supreme Court agrees with TikTok on the fact that its previous decision infringes on the freedom of expression. The justices rejected TikTok’s position that its ban infringes on free speech, emphasizing that a constitutional right does not impact foreign entities. The Supreme Court could rule as early as today.

This doesn’t look like a good year for TikTok.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments related to the TikTok ban – and whether it infringes on First Amendment rights – on January 10, 2025, and could rule as soon as today.

Here’s what you need to know about the status of the ruling and what could happen if the ban goes into effect.

But first… How did we get here?

Hmm. Let’s start with some context: The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act was signed into law in April 2024.

The name is just a mouthful, but the ruling would ban U.S. app stores, as well as web hosting services, from offering TikTok.

In other words: TikTok would be banned nationwide. (Cue desperate Gen Z everywhere.)

So what does the Supreme Court expect from TikTok?

TikTok parent company ByteDance is to divest its U.S. operations by Sunday, January 19, due to national security concerns over its Chinese ownership and data practices.

The arguments: the side of TikTok

During Friday pleadingsTikTok lawyer Noel Francisco argued that the ban violated the First Amendment.

As he says: “If the First Amendment means anything, it means that the government cannot restrict free speech in order to protect us from free speech..”

He added: “The government has no valid interest in preventing foreign propaganda…Rather, the government’s real target is the speech itself, its fear that Americans, even when fully informed, might be convinced by Chinese disinformation.” . decision that the First Amendment leaves to the people.

Francisco concluded: “[The ban] is also grossly under-inclusive and ignores the most obvious less restrictive alternative: simply prohibiting TikTok, Incorporated, from sharing sensitive user data with anyone.

Beyond TikTok’s argument that the ban violates free speech, Francisco highlighted a few other key points:

First: They say there is no documented evidence of Chinese government access to user data. And second: the deadline imposed is too tight for TikTok to separate from ByteDance.

The Supreme Court’s rebuttals

The justices on Friday appeared skeptical of TikTok’s arguments and questioned how First Amendment rights were implicated when the law specifically targets a foreign company. (To touch).

As Chief Justice John Roberts said: “Congress agrees with the [freedom of] expression. They don’t agree with a foreign adversary, as they determined, by gathering all this information about the 170 million people who use TikTok.”

In other words: The judges accept that we embarrass ourselves with TikTok dances, master the art of whipped coffee, and endlessly search for that “life-changing” pasta recipe.

What they don’t like is the Chinese government peeking at our data while we do it.

Roberts continued to point out that Congress had previously found ByteDance be “subject to Chinese laws that require it to assist or cooperate with the intelligence work of the Chinese government.”

Justice Elena Kagan also drew parallels to concerns over the Soviet Union in the 20th century, saying: “If Congress had said, ‘Well, that’s great, we can have the Communist Party of America, but he must divest, he has done it.” to completely separate from the Comintern and all the international links it maintains, do you think that would have been completely acceptable?

Can Trump overturn the TikTok ban?

On Truth Social, Trump recently request“Why should I get rid of TikTok? » with a graph showing his 36 billion views on #trump and 24 million average views per post on @realdonaldtrump.

Many believe Trump can overturn the ban if it goes into effect.

To my knowledge, this is what it could do:

It can suspend the ban for 90 days if TikTok demonstrates that it is divesting from ByteDance (although without actual proof of its divestment, this could be challenged in court). Trump could declare that TikTok complies with the law, but this could still be challenged in court if ByteDance does not divest. It may try to negotiate a deal to sell TikTok to a U.S. company, but only if ByteDance is willing to sell, which it hasn’t so far.

Beyond that, there’s not much he can do unless the Supreme Court repeals that notion on its own.

What happens if TikTok is banned?

First, it’s important to note that if the Supreme Court decides to ban TikTok from app stores and web hosting services, people can still continue to use TikTok if they already have it.

However, without legitimate means of accessing the app, it would be impossible to access TikTok updates, ultimately rendering the app unusable.

(And also, there’s the not-so-small problem that app updates are generally useful for security measures. Without regular updates, your TikTok will become more and more vulnerable to hackers. Ouch.)

There are also other ways to access the app, for example, a VPN (virtual private network) or by changing the region of your phone so that you can access the app as if you were in another country .

But these efforts are short-lived and risky. Eventually, the 170 million users currently using TikTok will have to turn to alternative platforms – especially since TikTok’s legal team has said that if the ban goes into effect, TikTok will “go dark.”

What does all this mean for marketers?

It’s more than likely that poorly placed TikTokers will turn to Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts, both of which mimic similar user behavior.

Additionally, if you use TikTok’s advertising tools, you will need to move your advertising strategy to YouTube or Instagram.

Short-form videos aren’t going away, but TikTok might. If so, it’s still essential that your team focuses on how you can invest in short-term videos on other platforms.

And although change can be scary, it’s important to remember that we will all be okay.

As Leanne Elliott, co-host of the show Truth, lies and work podcast, told me: “When it comes to platforms like TikTok, it’s important to remember that people and communities are far more resilient than the apps they use. Platforms come and go. Just think about MySpace, Vine or even the fact that Facebook isn’t quite what it used to be.”

She adds: “What remains constant is our need for connection and shared experiences. If TikTok disappears, creators and their audiences will move forward together. Relationships don’t disappear, they just find a new home.”

His bet is that if TikTok were to disappear tomorrow, people would turn to YouTube Shorts, Instagram and (drumroll, please…) LinkedIn.

As Elliott points out, “[LinkedIn’s] calling for fresh and creative content, especially for those looking to build a professional edge. In the coming years, LinkedIn could become a real hot spot for B2B creators who get started now.”

It’s also important to remember that TikTok has never been a major driver for most businesses. So while it can be fun to follow ‘Tok trends, your business probably won’t suffer too much from the ban.

As Louis ‘Fonzi’ Camejo, host of the show Content is profit podcast, told me: “I personally, the ban doesn’t bother me in terms of marketing. TikTok is not a channel that has increased our audience, so we have not invested time or resources into it. We noticed that even though some clips had good reach, the user wasn’t really interested in leaving the platform. »

We’ll update this article as more information becomes available, but for now… We wait.